A Decomposition of the Correlation Coefficient and its Use in Analyzing Forecasting Skill
ثبت نشده
چکیده
Estimates of several components of forecasting skill can be obtained by combining a skill-score decomposition developed by Allan Murphy with techniques for decomposing correlation coefficients that have been employed in research on human judgment. The decomposition of the correlation coefficient requires knowledge of the information or "cues" used by the forecaster. When the cues are known, it is possible to estimate the effects of uncertainty and the forecaster's consistency and use of the cues.
منابع مشابه
A combined Wavelet- Artificial Neural Network model and its application to the prediction of groundwater level fluctuations
Accurate groundwater level modeling and forecasting contribute to civil projects, land use, citys planning and water resources management. Combined Wavelet-Artificial Neural Network (WANN) model has been widely used in recent years to forecast hydrological and hydrogeological phenomena. This study investigates the sensitivity of the pre-processing to the wavelet type and decomposition level in ...
متن کاملShort Term Load Forecasting Using Empirical Mode Decomposition, Wavelet Transform and Support Vector Regression
The Short-term forecasting of electric load plays an important role in designing and operation of power systems. Due to the nature of the short-term electric load time series (nonlinear, non-constant, and non-seasonal), accurate prediction of the load is very challenging. In this article, a method for short-term daily and hourly load forecasting is proposed. In this method, in the first step, t...
متن کاملپیشبینی قیمتهای نقدی گازطبیعی به کمک مدلهای غیرخطی ناپارامتریک
Developing models for accurate natural gas spot price forecasting is critical because these forecasts are useful in determining a range of regulatory decisions covering both supply and demand of natural gas or for market participants. A price forecasting modeler needs to use trial and error to build mathematical models (such as ANN) for different input combinations. This is very time consuming ...
متن کاملA forecasting system by considering product reliability, POQ policy, and periodic demand
This paper presents an economic production quantity (EPQ) model with a periodic order quantity (POQ) policy, product reliability and periodic demand. The machine reliability has decreased over time; therefore, the rates of perfect and defective products reduce and increase over time, respectively. A fixed percentage of these products are reworked while the rest is wasted. Some equipment in thei...
متن کاملStochastic Monthly Rainfall Time Series Analysis, Modeling and Forecasting ( A cas study: Ardebilcity
Rainfall is the main source of the available water for human. Predicting the amount of the future rainfall is useful for informed policies, planning and decision making that will help potentially make optimal and sustainable use of available water resources. The main aim of this study was to investigate the trend and forecast monthly rainfall of selected synoptic station in Ardabil province usi...
متن کامل